Highlights

• • Implied market probability 86.3% vs our 70% estimate
• • Required odds for value (1.429) are well above the available 1.158

Pros

• + Yamanaka has positive overall record and ITF experience
• + No injury reports in the provided research

Cons

• - Market price implies an unreasonably high win probability
• - Insufficient opponent/H2H/surface detail to justify the short price

Details

The market prices Taiyo Yamanaka at 1.158 (implied ~86.3%). Based on the available profile we estimate Yamanaka's true win chance is substantially lower (~70%) given a modest overall record (26-20), mixed recent results, and lack of corroborating information on the opponent, surface specifics, or any injury advantage. That produces a negative expected value at the quoted price: EV = 0.70 * 1.158 - 1 = -0.189 (≈ -18.9% ROI). To be +EV at this projected probability you would need at least 1.429 decimal odds, so the current market is overestimating the favorite and offers no value. We therefore do not recommend backing either side at the present price.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (86.3%) is much higher than our estimate (70%)
• • Yamanaka has a solid but not dominant career record (26-20) and mixed recent form
• • No available evidence of injury, H2H, or surface edge to justify such a short price