Highlights

• • Market implied Taiyo win chance: ~30.8%; our estimate: 38%
• • Positive EV on Taiyo at current decimal odds 3.25

Pros

• + Current odds (3.25) more than cover our required breakeven odds (2.632)
• + Both players’ form and surface history suggest a closer contest than market implies

Cons

• - Small-sample and limited match detail in research introduce uncertainty to the probability estimate
• - Agafonov has a slightly stronger overall record and some hard-court exposure, so upset risk exists

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to our assessment. The market prices Egor Agafonov at 1.30 (implied win probability ~76.9%) and Taiyo Yamanaka at 3.25 (implied win probability ~30.8%). The head-to-head and form data in the research show Agafonov with a modestly better overall record (31-22 vs 26-20) and experience on hard courts, but not a gap that justifies a ~77% implied chance. Both players have recent hard-court activity and mixed results; Agafonov recently lost in Maanshan on hard, which reduces the confidence in the heavy favorite tag. We estimate Taiyo's true win probability at 38% vs the market's 30.8%, creating positive expected value on the Taiyo moneyline at the quoted 3.25 price. Using odds 3.25 (the current market price), EV = 0.38 * 3.25 - 1 = +0.235 (23.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake).

Key factors

• • Market implies Taiyo only ~30.8% while our assessment is ~38% — gap creates value
• • Both players have recent hard-court matches; Agafonov’s recent loss in Maanshan lowers favorite confidence
• • Overall records are similar; Agafonov’s edge is modest and doesn’t justify current heavy favorite pricing