Taiyo Yamanaka vs Egor Agafonov

Highlights

• • Agafonov-priced as ~80% favorite but career records are only marginally better.
• • Yamanaka’s hard-court background narrows the gap and justifies backing the underdog at current odds.

Pros

• + Current home price (3.58) exceeds our breakeven (3.333) for a 30% win chance.
• + Surface specialization and comparable records create plausible upset potential.

Cons

• - Market support for Agafonov suggests underlying reasons (form/fitness/confidence) not fully visible in the provided profiles.
• - Tennis outcomes are volatile; upsets are possible but also unpredictable, elevating variance.

Details

We see the market heavily favors Agafonov at 1.254 (implied ~79.7%), which appears aggressive given the available profiles. Agafonov has a slightly better overall win-loss record (31-22 vs 26-20) and experience on hard, but Yamanaka is a hard-court specialist and their career records are broadly comparable. Recent form for both shows mixed results with recent losses in comparable events, so we do not see an 80% true probability for Agafonov. We estimate Taiyo Yamanaka's true win probability at 30% vs the market-implied 27.9% for his 3.58 price. At that estimate the minimum fair decimal price is 3.333 and the current 3.58 offers positive EV. Using the current home decimal (3.58) gives EV = 0.30 * 3.58 - 1 = 0.074 (7.4% expected return). We favor the home upset here because the market overweights Agafonov relative to a realistic assessment based on comparable records, surface specialization for Yamanaka, and similarly mixed recent form.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~79.7% for Agafonov (1.254) — likely overstated given comparable career records
• • Yamanaka is a hard-court specialist while Agafonov splits surfaces; surface fit favors Yamanaka
• • Both players show mixed recent form with recent losses, reducing confidence in a heavy favorite