Highlights

• • Home price of 1.40 appears overstated given Korpatsch's recent form and career winrate
• • Away price 2.90 exceeds our fair-price threshold (2.50) and produces positive EV

Pros

• + Clear positive expected value at provided odds (EV ≈ +16%)
• + Conservative probability estimate still produces value, offering downside protection

Cons

• - Research lacks direct recent data on Cornet, increasing model uncertainty
• - Single-match variance in tennis can negate short-term value despite positive EV

Details

The market prices Tamara Korpatsch at 1.40 (implied 71.4%) which is not supported by the available performance data. Korpatsch's career win rate (~52.4%) and documented recent losses indicate she is unlikely to have a >70% chance versus a veteran opponent; the research shows back-to-back losses and no convincing form uplift. We lack direct data for Alizé Cornet in the provided research, so we adopt a conservative assessment that Cornet's true chance is materially higher than the market-implied 34.5% for the away price of 2.90. Assigning an estimated true probability of 40.0% for Cornet yields positive expected value at current odds (EV = 0.40*2.90 - 1 = +0.16). The minimum fair decimal price to justify taking the away side at our probability is 2.500, and the available 2.90 provides sufficient margin to call this a value bet, albeit with uncertainty due to incomplete opponent data.

Key factors

• • Korpatsch's career win rate (~52.4%) does not justify a 71% implied probability
• • Recent documented losses indicate poor short-term form
• • Market implies only ~34.5% for Cornet at 2.90 — we estimate higher (40%) creating value
• • Lack of Cornet-specific data increases estimation uncertainty