Highlights

• • Korpatsch career record implies ~52% baseline win probability
• • Current favorite price (1.26) implies ~79% — significantly above our estimate

Pros

• + Korpatsch has a long-established win record that gives a meaningful baseline estimate
• + Clear market consensus on favorite simplifies value comparison

Cons

• - Recent match results indicate declining short-term form, reducing confidence in favorite pick
• - No substantive research provided on the away player to justify backing the underdog at 3.7

Details

We estimate Tamara Korpatsch's true match-win probability at about 52% based on her long career win-loss baseline (559–507) adjusted slightly downward for clearly poor recent results shown in the research. The current moneyline of 1.26 implies a win probability of ~79.4%, which is far higher than our estimated 52% and therefore offers negative expected value on the favorite. Converting our estimate into EV: EV = p * decimal_odds - 1 = 0.52 * 1.26 - 1 = -0.345 (≈ -34.5% ROI), so the favorite is overpriced. The underdog at 3.7 carries an implied probability of ~27.0%; while that price could offer value if we believed the underdog’s true chance exceeded ~27%, we lack supporting research on the away player to justify a confident probability above that threshold. Given the available data (detailed Korpatsch profile and recent form), we cannot identify a positive EV bet at the quoted prices and therefore recommend no side.

Key factors

• • Korpatsch career win-rate baseline (~52%)
• • Recent form shown in research indicates a string of losses, lowering short-term expectations
• • Market price (1.26) implies ~79% which far exceeds our estimate and produces negative EV