Highlights

• • Implied market probability: ~78.6%; our estimate: 80%
• • Min fair odds to break even: 1.25; market offers 1.273

Pros

• + Clear experience and larger match sample supporting a strong baseline probability
• + Market price slightly richer than our fair odds, creating a small positive EV

Cons

• - Edge is small (≈1.8% ROI) and vulnerable to variance or unreported conditions/injuries
• - Both players reported recent losses in lower-tier events, reducing predictive confidence

Details

The market prices Tamara Korpatsch heavily as the favorite at 1.273 (implied ~78.6%). We estimate her true chance closer to 80% based on a large career sample, a positive overall win-loss record, broader surface experience (including clay), and Alizé Cornet's limited recent match volume and poorer record. That places a small edge: our probability (0.80) yields a min fair price of 1.25, better than the market 1.273, producing a small positive EV. We note both players show recent losses in lower-tier events, which moderates confidence, so this is a slender value play rather than a large disparity.

Key factors

• • Experience gap and much larger career/sample size for Korpatsch
• • Alizé Cornet's limited recent matches and subpar win rate (10-21) in provided sample
• • Surface/venue familiarity favors an experienced clay/hard player like Korpatsch
• • Market-implied probability (78.6%) slightly below our estimate (80%)
• • Recent losses for both players reduce confidence — small margin for error