Highlights

• • Home at 2.23 requires only ~44.9% true probability to break even; we estimate 46%
• • Edge is small (≈2.6% ROI) and sensitive to missing info on surface/form

Pros

• + Market offers a decimal price above our conservative fair value estimate
• + Simple, low-margin value that fits a disciplined value-betting approach

Cons

• - Very small edge — vulnerable to unobserved factors (surface, recent form, injuries)
• - High information uncertainty; if our probability estimate is off by a few points EV disappears

Details

We view the market as favoring Arantxa Rus (away) at 1.64 while Tamara Korpatsch (home) is offered at 2.23. With no external injury, surface or form data available we take a conservative view that the players are closely matched and the market may be overstating the away favorite. A modest true win probability of 46% for Korpatsch implies the market price of 2.23 offers a small positive edge. Given limited information this is a cautious, small-margin value play rather than a strong bias — the edge depends on the assumption of roughly even chances and possible market favorite bias toward Rus.

Key factors

• • Market-priced favorite (Rus) may be slightly overvalued given no clear informational edge
• • No surface, injury, or recent-form data available — we assume players are closely matched
• • Small margin of value only if Korpatsch's true win chance is modestly above the market-implied 44.9%