Tamara Korpatsch vs Arantxa Rus

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for each player ≈ 52.9%
• • Our assessed true probability ≈ 48.5%, requiring ≥2.062 decimal odds for value

Pros

• + Match is priced evenly so downside is symmetric (no heavy favorite risk)
• + Simple situation with no conflicting injury/H2H data to parse

Cons

• - Both players have poor recent results, reducing confidence in any edge
• - Current available odds (1.89) are below our breakeven threshold, producing negative EV

Details

We find no value on either side. The market prices are even (1.89 / 1.89, market-implied win prob ≈ 52.9% each), but our assessment puts the true win probability for either player slightly below market at about 48.5% because both players show nearly identical, poor recent form (10-21 for the season) and there is no clear edge from surface, injuries, or H2H. At our estimated probability the fair decimal price is ~2.062; the available 1.89 is insufficient to overcome the implied downside. EV per unit at the current price is negative (≈ -0.083), so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Both players have almost identical season records (10-21) and recent poor form
• • Available market odds are even (1.89 each) offering no implied edge
• • No surface, injury, or H2H advantage identifiable from the provided data