Tamara Korpatsch vs Oksana Selekhmeteva

Highlights

• • Market implies Tamara has ~43.9% chance; we estimate ~50%
• • Estimated EV on Tamara at current odds is +0.14 (14% ROI per unit)

Pros

• + Clear value gap between our probability estimate and the market price
• + Both players' profiles in the research are essentially even, supporting a 50/50 baseline

Cons

• - Limited distinguishing data in the research; small-sample variance in tennis can swing outcomes
• - No head-to-head, seeding, or injury information provided to increase confidence

Details

We see near-parity in the provided data: both players show identical season records (10-21) and similar recent results on the same surfaces, so we estimate the true chance of Tamara Korpatsch winning is roughly 50%. The market price (Tamara 2.28) implies a win probability of ~43.9% (1/2.28). That creates value because our estimated probability (50%) is meaningfully higher than the implied probability, producing positive expected value. The book's favorite (Selekhmeteva at 1.62) implies ~61.7% but the provided research does not show a justification for such a large edge (both players share virtually identical records and recent form), so we treat the market favorite as over-priced. We also note a modest book overround (~5.6%) in the two-way line, which slightly reduces book fairness but does not eliminate the value on Tamara at 2.28.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical seasonal records (10-21) in the provided data
• • Recent match lists for both show similar results and surfaces (no clear form edge)
• • Book odds favor the away player more than the available evidence supports, creating value on the home price