Highlights

• • Normalized true win probability for Away ≈ 72.2%
• • Minimum fair price for Away ≈ 1.384; current price 1.334 offers negative EV (~-3.6%)

Pros

• + Market clearly identifies a favorite, so prices are tight and predictable
• + Our methodology is conservative and removes bookmaker overround

Cons

• - Insufficient match-specific info (form, partnerships) increases uncertainty
• - Both sides produce a small negative EV at current widely-available prices

Details

We normalize the market-implied probabilities to remove the bookmaker overround and then compare to offered prices. Raw implied probs: Home = 1/3.47 = 0.288, Away = 1/1.334 = 0.750 (sum = 1.038). Normalized true estimates: Home ≈ 0.278, Away ≈ 0.722. Using our estimated true probability for the favorite (Away) of 0.722, the minimum fair decimal price would be 1/0.722 ≈ 1.384. The current away price (1.334) is shorter than that threshold, producing a negative expected value (EV = 0.722 * 1.334 - 1 ≈ -0.036). The long/home selection also lacks value at the current price (EV ≈ -0.037). Given the small negative EV on both sides, limited match-specific information, and the high variance of doubles, we do not find positive-value backing at the available prices and therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market shows a clear favorite (Away) with significant implied probability
• • Normalization of implied prices (removing vig) yields Away ≈ 72.2% / Home ≈ 27.8%
• • No clear value after comparison of our conservative probabilities to quoted odds; doubles matches have higher variance