Highlights

• • Current odds (1.402) leave ~3.7% edge per our estimate
• • Experience and larger track record favor Korpatsch in a baseline matchup

Pros

• + Market underestimates Korpatsch slightly based on our probability model
• + Korpatsch's long career/sample reduces variance risk relative to Cornet's limited recent data

Cons

• - Edge is modest (≈3.7%); variance can eat small edges over short samples
• - Research shows both players had recent losses, introducing form uncertainty

Details

We estimate Tamara Korpatsch is the correct favorite versus Alize Cornet on clay. The market price of 1.402 implies a win probability of ~71.3%; after weighing the research — Korpatsch's long career sample (559-507) and consistent clay experience versus Cornet's limited and poor recent record (10-21) — we assign a true win probability of 74.0%. That gives positive expected value at the current price (EV = 0.74 * 1.402 - 1 ≈ 0.037), so the market appears to slightly undervalue Korpatsch.

Key factors

• • Korpatsch's large career sample and higher overall win count indicating greater consistency
• • Match is on clay — surface both have experience on, but Korpatsch's broader record suggests steadier clay performance
• • Cornet's limited recent/activity sample and poor win-loss record (10-21) increases uncertainty and lowers her implied chance