Highlights

• • Implied market probability: ~75.3% (1.328)
• • Our estimated true probability: 70% → required odds >= 1.429 for value

Pros

• + Home/player with long career span may carry experience advantage
• + Short market price indicates strong favourite status (if recent form supports it)

Cons

• - Current price (1.328) is shorter than our fair valuation, producing negative EV
• - Research provided is incomplete/duplicated, increasing uncertainty about true form and matchup details

Details

We compare the market price (Tamara Korpatsch 1.328 decimal, implied win probability ~75.3%) to our independent estimate of her true win probability (~70%). The available player profiles are incomplete and largely duplicated, giving limited reliable form or H2H information; Korpatsch's long career span suggests experience advantage but recent results in the research are unclear, so we apply a conservative probability below the market-implied level. At our estimated probability (0.70) the fair decimal price would be ~1.429, which is higher than the current 1.328 quote, so the currently available home moneyline offers negative expected value. Given that mismatch, we do not recommend backing either side at the listed prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.328 -> ~75.3%) exceeds our conservative estimated probability (70%)
• • Research data is limited/duplicated and provides insufficient recent-form or H2H detail
• • Korpatsch's longer career span suggests experience but not enough to justify the market price given unclear recent results