Highlights

• • Current price 1.429 implies 70% but our model assigns 78%
• • Minimum fair odds to break even are ~1.282, well below the current market price

Pros

• + Significantly larger career sample and higher career win rate
• + Broader surface experience reduces matchup volatility

Cons

• - Qualifier matches have higher upset potential and variance
• - Limited recent-match detail and both players show recent losses

Details

We estimate meaningful value on Tamara Korpatsch at the current moneyline. The market-implied probability for Korpatsch at 1.429 is 70.0%, but from the available profiles she brings a large experience advantage (career 559-507 over many surfaces) versus Tina Nadine Smith's limited sample (10-21 in 31 matches). Both have recent losses noted, but Korpatsch's durable career baseline and broader surface experience reduce matchup variance against a relatively inexperienced opponent. We conservatively estimate Korpatsch's true win probability at 78%, which yields a minimum fair decimal price of 1.282; the offered 1.429 therefore represents positive expected value after accounting for typical market vig. Calculation: EV = 0.78 * 1.429 - 1 = +0.115 (≈11.5% ROI). Key risks that temper confidence are the qualifier setting (higher upset variance) and limited recent-match detail for both players, but even with conservative assumptions the current price looks profitable.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Korpatsch 559-507 career vs Smith 10-21 in 31 matches
• • Both players have clay experience but Korpatsch has broader surface durability
• • Market-implied probability (70%) is below our estimated true probability (78%), creating value