Highlights

• • Market price (2.69) implies 37.2% — we estimate 40%
• • Tamila's experience and career win-rate justify an edge at ITF level

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (EV ≈ +7.6%)
• + Experienced player likely better adapted to ITF-level opponents and match rhythms

Cons

• - Recent match data shows losses for both players; recent form is not strongly positive
• - Research is truncated and lacks injury/H2H detail, increasing uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Tamila Gadamauri (1/2.69 = 37.2%) to our estimated true probability of 40%. Although Emma Lene is the market favorite at 1.433, the available research shows Emma with a small sample (31 matches) and a weak overall record (10-21), while Tamila has extensive experience (1066 matches, overall winning record). Both players show recent losses at Challenger events, but Tamila's greater experience at lower-level events like ITF should improve her chances in R1 action. Given the market is pricing Tamila at ~37% and our assessment places her near 40%, the 2.69 price offers positive expected value. We recognize uncertainty from truncated recent-match data and potential unreported conditions or injuries, so the edge is moderate rather than large.

Key factors

• • Tamila's large career sample and higher long-term win rate versus Emma's small sample and poorer record
• • Both players show recent losses, but Tamila's experience favors better performance at ITF level
• • Market-implied probability for Tamila (37.2%) is below our estimated 40% true chance
• • Uncertainty from limited recent-match detail and possible unreported injuries or conditions