Tamila Gadamauri vs Emma Lene
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find modest value backing the home player Tamila Gadamauri at 2.69 — our model estimates a ~40% win chance vs the market's ~37%, producing ~+7.6% ROI.
Highlights
- • Market price (2.69) implies 37.2% — we estimate 40%
- • Tamila's experience and career win-rate justify an edge at ITF level
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (EV ≈ +7.6%)
- + Experienced player likely better adapted to ITF-level opponents and match rhythms
Cons
- - Recent match data shows losses for both players; recent form is not strongly positive
- - Research is truncated and lacks injury/H2H detail, increasing uncertainty
Details
We compare the market-implied probability for Tamila Gadamauri (1/2.69 = 37.2%) to our estimated true probability of 40%. Although Emma Lene is the market favorite at 1.433, the available research shows Emma with a small sample (31 matches) and a weak overall record (10-21), while Tamila has extensive experience (1066 matches, overall winning record). Both players show recent losses at Challenger events, but Tamila's greater experience at lower-level events like ITF should improve her chances in R1 action. Given the market is pricing Tamila at ~37% and our assessment places her near 40%, the 2.69 price offers positive expected value. We recognize uncertainty from truncated recent-match data and potential unreported conditions or injuries, so the edge is moderate rather than large.
Key factors
- • Tamila's large career sample and higher long-term win rate versus Emma's small sample and poorer record
- • Both players show recent losses, but Tamila's experience favors better performance at ITF level
- • Market-implied probability for Tamila (37.2%) is below our estimated 40% true chance
- • Uncertainty from limited recent-match detail and possible unreported injuries or conditions