Tampa Bay LightningVSChicago Blackhawks

Summary: We find value on Tampa Bay at 1.74 — our model gives them a ~62% win chance vs. the market's ~57.5%, producing ~7.9% EV.

Key claims

• • Market odds — home: 1.74, away: 3.6.
• • We find value on Tampa Bay at 1.74 — our model gives them a ~62% win chance vs. the market's ~57.5%, producing ~7.9% EV.
• • We estimate Tampa Bay's chance to win at ~62%.
• • The market price of 1.74 implies a 57.47% probability, so we see ~4.5 percentage points of edge.
• • Key drivers: Tampa Bay's stronger season form (25 wins in 46 games, above .500), Chicago's recent poor run (lost 4 of last 5), and roster/injury notes (Chicago placed D Shea Weber on injured list while Tampa Bay's listed IR move is less disruptive to top-end depth).
• • Converting our probability to EV: 0.62 * 1.74 - 1 = +0.0788 (≈7.9% ROI).
• • Given this positive expected value at the widely available 1.74 price, we recommend the home moneyline.
• • Market-implied probability for Tampa Bay: 57.5%
• • Our estimated probability: 62% → ~4.5% edge