Highlights

• • Implied breakeven probability for Wurth at 3.30 is 30.3%
• • Our conservative estimate for Wurth is 25%, producing -17.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Clear numeric gap between required odds (4.00) and offered odds (3.30) for the underdog
• + Market strongly signals Grabher as favorite, aligning with our conservative view and reducing likelihood of overlooked value

Cons

• - No web sources returned — elevated uncertainty means we may be underestimating situational factors that could increase Wurth's chances
• - If hidden factors (injury to Grabher, favorable surface for Wurth, or H2H edge) exist, our conservative estimate could be too low

Details

We compared the market prices (Tara Wurth 3.30, Julia Grabher 1.33) to a conservative, research-limited probability estimate. The market-implied probability for Wurth at 3.30 is ~30.3% (1/3.30) and for Grabher at 1.33 is ~75.2% (1/1.33) before adjusting for vig. With no external data returned, we adopt a cautious true probability estimate of Wurth winning of 25% (Grabher 75%). At that estimate the minimum fair odds needed to make a Wurth bet profitable are 4.00 decimal. The current Wurth price (3.30) is below that threshold, producing a negative expected value (EV = 0.25*3.30 - 1 = -0.175). Given the lack of confirmatory information on surface, form, injuries, or H2H, we cannot justify upgrading Wurth's win probability above the 30.3% break-even mark required for value. Therefore we do not recommend a bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • No external research returned — high uncertainty; use conservative assumptions
• • Market prices strongly favor the away player (Grabher) — implied favorite probability ~75%
• • Underdog (Wurth) needs >30.30% true win probability to be +EV at 3.30; our conservative estimate is 25%