Highlights

• • Current home price (3.29) exceeds our break-even price (3.125)
• • Positive expected value of roughly 0.053 per 1 unit staked under conservative assumptions

Pros

• + Underdog price contains margin cushion; offers small but clear positive EV
• + Conservative probability estimate avoids overconfidence given lack of data

Cons

• - Research was limited — unknown surface, form and injury information raise uncertainty
• - Edge is modest (~5.3% EV) and could evaporate if our probability estimate is off

Details

With no external research available we take a conservative, model-like approach: the market prices Julia Grabher as a strong favorite (implied ~74%), but that includes bookmaker margin and likely overstates the short-price certainty. We estimate Grabher's true win probability nearer to 0.68 and Tara Wuerth's true win probability at 0.32. At those probabilities the fair decimal price for Wuerth is 3.125; the available price of 3.29 therefore offers positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.32 * 3.29 - 1 = +0.0528 (≈ +5.3% on a 1-unit stake). We remain conservative given unknown surface, form and injury status, so we only recommend the underdog (home) because it crosses the value threshold at current quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Market implies a much stronger favourite; bookmaker margin inflates favourite’s price
• • Conservative true-probability split (32%/68%) gives Wuerth pricing edge at 3.29
• • Limited external info increases uncertainty — estimate errs on the cautious side