Taylor Fritz vs Jakub Mensik
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive edge on Taylor Fritz at 1.36 (estimated true win prob ~74.5%), but the margin is narrow and the play carries moderate variance.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~73.5% for Fritz; our model gives ~74.5%
- • Minimum fair odds to justify a bet are ~1.342; current 1.36 clears that threshold
Pros
- + Slight positive expected value at available price
- + Backed by stronger career win rate and experience
Cons
- - Edge is very small (EV ≈ 1.3% ROI) — sensitive to model or event-detail changes
- - Limited match-specific data (H2H, injuries, exact surface/conditions) increases uncertainty
Details
We see Taylor Fritz as the deserved favorite based on a stronger career win rate (51-21) and slightly higher recent form relative to Jakub Mensik (42-24). The market decimal price of 1.36 implies a win probability of ~73.5%; after factoring in career-level performance, comparable US Open results for both players, and surface familiarity, we estimate Fritz's true win probability at ~74.5%, which is slightly better than the market-implied probability and produces a small positive edge. The advantage is modest — driven primarily by overall winning record and experience — so this is a value but low-margin play; variance and event-specific factors (undisclosed injuries, matchup details) could remove the edge.
Key factors
- • Fritz has a stronger overall win-loss record (51-21) versus Mensik (42-24)
- • Both showed mixed US Open results recently, but Fritz's experience favors him in tight matches
- • Current market-implied probability (1/1.36 ≈ 73.5%) is slightly below our estimate (74.5%), creating a small edge