Taylor Fritz vs Jiri Lehecka

Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Fritz: 76.1%
• • Our estimated probability for Fritz: 67% → required odds ≥ 1.493 for positive EV

Pros

• + Fritz has the superior career win-loss rate in the provided data
• + Davis Cup often favors the higher-ranked/superior record player

Cons

• - Market price already shortens Fritz to a level that offers negative EV vs our model
• - Surface/venue and Davis Cup specific factors are unknown and could reduce certainty

Details

We compare the market price (Taylor Fritz 1.314 => implied 76.1%) to our independent assessment. Fritz's provided career record (51-21, ~70.8% win rate) is stronger than Lehecka's (39-24, ~61.9%), which supports Fritz as the favorite, but not to the extent the market implies. Recent match lines from the US Open show both players with mixed recent results, so form does not strongly favor Fritz beyond his career edge. Given the lack of surface/venue detail and Davis Cup variables, we apply a conservative adjustment to Fritz's raw career win rate and estimate a true win probability of 67%. At the current decimal price 1.314 this yields EV = 0.67 * 1.314 - 1 = -0.12 (negative), so there is no value to back Fritz at the available market price. To be profitable we would need at least decimal 1.493 for Fritz based on our probability model.

Key factors

• • Taylor Fritz's stronger career win-loss (51-21 ≈ 70.8%) vs Lehecka (39-24 ≈ 61.9%)
• • Both players show mixed recent US Open results — no clear form advantage
• • Market implies ~76.1% for Fritz (1/1.314) which exceeds our estimated 67% true probability