Highlights

• • Market price (3.7) implies a lower win probability than Gruber's observed career rate
• • Positive expected value: ~0.221 (22.1% ROI) at current odds

Pros

• + Current odds (3.7) are comfortably above our breakeven level (~3.03)
• + Career win percentage in provided data (≈32.3%) supports a higher true probability than the market implies

Cons

• - Recent match list in the research shows multiple losses, indicating form risk
• - No information provided on opponent strength, surface for this match, or injuries — increases uncertainty

Details

Market prices assign Taylor Gruber a 27.0% chance to win (1/3.7). Gruber's career win-rate in the provided sample is 10/31 = 32.3%, and despite recent losses the raw data supports a higher long-run win probability than the market-implied 27%. Using a conservative true probability estimate of 33.0% we find value: EV = 0.33 * 3.7 - 1 = 0.221 (22.1% ROI). The price (3.7) is above the breakeven decimal (≈3.03) implied by our probability, so a bet on the home player represents positive expected value given the available data. Key caveats are limited opponent information and poor recent form, which increase uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Career sample shows 10 wins in 31 matches (≈32.3% win rate)
• • Recent form in the provided data shows multiple losses, increasing variance
• • Market-implied probability for Gruber is 27.0% (1/3.7) which is below our 33% estimate
• • Current decimal 3.7 is above our breakeven decimal (~3.03), creating positive EV