Taylor Fritz vs Jakub Mensik

Highlights

• • Fritz stronger on career win-rate in the provided dataset
• • Current market rounds Fritz to ~75% implied probability vs our 72% estimate

Pros

• + Clear favorite with a substantially better career W-L in the supplied data
• + Recent match results included for both players show comparable recent form

Cons

• - Book price for Fritz (1.33) exceeds our fair-price estimate, producing negative EV
• - Limited additional contextual data (H2H, injuries, full surface breakdown) in the supplied research

Details

We compare the market prices (Taylor Fritz 1.33 decimal = implied win probability ~75.2%) to our estimate of the true probability. Fritz's career win rate in the provided data is 51/72 (0.708) and Mensik's is 42/66 (0.636). Accounting for Fritz's stronger overall record and comparable recent form at the US Open, we estimate Fritz's true win probability at 72.0%. At the current price of 1.33 that implies a negative expected value (EV = 0.72*1.33 - 1 = -0.042). The market is pricing Fritz more heavily (~75.2%) than our view (72.0%), so there is no value on Fritz. Mensik at 3.4 (implied ~29.4%) would require a true win probability >=29.4% to be profitable; given the relative records and recent form shown, we estimate Mensik's true win chance around 28.0%, which also produces negative EV at 3.4. Therefore we do not recommend a bet at the current prices.

Key factors

• • Career win rates from supplied data favor Fritz (51-21 vs 42-24)
• • Recent form from the supplied US Open lines is roughly comparable for both players
• • Market-implied probability (1.33 -> ~75.2%) exceeds our estimate (72.0%), removing value