Highlights

• • Home (Gruber) has a 10-21 career record across 31 matches
• • Current favorite price (1.30) implies a higher win probability than our estimate, so no value

Pros

• + Market consensus correctly identifies Gruber as underdog given his record
• + Our estimate is conservative and accounts for limited sample size, reducing overconfidence

Cons

• - Data on the opponent (Lani Brotman) is not provided, increasing uncertainty in the matchup balance
• - Small-career sample and sparse recent-match detail raise variance risk versus a pure statistical model

Details

We analyze the market price (Away 1.30 / Home 3.30) against the limited player data available. Taylor Gruber has a 10-21 career record across 31 matches (career span 2024-09-09 to 2025-09-01) with recent losses listed on hard and clay; that form supports the market favoring the away player. Given the sparse dataset and no positive evidence that Gruber exceeds his career win rate, we estimate the true probability for the away player to win at roughly 70%. At the quoted decimal price 1.30 the implied market probability (~76.9%) is higher than our estimate, but the payout on 1.30 does not cover our estimated true probability once bookmaker margin is considered (EV at current price is negative). Therefore we do not find positive expected value on either side at the current displayed prices.

Key factors

• • Taylor Gruber's 10-21 career record over 31 matches indicates weak historical win rate
• • Recent documented results include losses on hard and clay, suggesting poor recent form
• • Market strongly favors the away player (1.30) and current price does not offer sufficient margin for value vs our 70% estimate