Highlights

• • Implied away probability (10.0) = 10% vs our estimate 48%
• • Estimated EV at current price: +3.8 units per 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Large positive edge at the current market price
• + Both players' profiles in the research support a much closer matchup than the market implies

Cons

• - Extremely lopsided market price may reflect undisclosed information not present in the research
• - High variance: backing a longshot means outcomes are binary and infrequent

Details

We find a clear value opportunity on the away side. The market prices Teodora Kostovic at 1.06 (implied ~94.3%) and Alja Senica at 10.0 (implied 10%), but the available player data shows near-identical career spans, identical win-loss totals (10-21), and similar surface experience and recent results. There is no injury or form evidence in the provided research to justify a near-certain probability for the home player. We therefore estimate the true win probability for Alja Senica at 48% (with Teodora ~52%). At the quoted 10.0, that yields very large positive expected value (EV = 0.48 * 10.0 - 1 = 3.8 units per 1-unit stake). This indicates a severe market overpricing of the favorite and strong value on the away under the supplied information.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and overlapping surfaces played
• • No injury or H2H information in the research to justify a 94% market probability for the home player
• • Market prices create a severe disparity (home 1.06 vs away 10.0) producing large theoretical EV on the away