Highlights

• • Market implies away win ~62.7% while research supports ~50% split
• • Home price (2.36) exceeds fair price (2.00) under our estimate

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current decimal odds
• + Simple, conservative model: identical profiles justify 50/50 baseline

Cons

• - Limited dataset and no H2H / location details increase uncertainty
• - Small-sample player records (31 matches) make probability estimates noisy

Details

We view the matchup as essentially even based on the available data: both players show identical career spans, identical overall records (10-21), and similar recent results on clay and hard surfaces. The market prices Oleksandra (away) as a clear favorite at implied probability ~62.7% (1/1.595) while Teodora (home) is priced at ~42.4% (1/2.36). Given no distinguishing form, surface edge, injuries, or H2H information in the research, we conservatively estimate a true win probability of 50.0% for Teodora. At that probability the fair price is 2.00 decimal; the current home price of 2.36 represents positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.50 * 2.36 - 1 = +0.18 (18% ROI per unit stake). We therefore recommend the home side as a value play at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical career records and recent results in the provided data
• • Market strongly favors the away player (implied ~62.7%) despite no evidence of superiority
• • With no injury or surface advantage reported, a 50/50 baseline is reasonable and favors the underdog price