Teodora Kostovic vs Oleksandra Oliynykova

Highlights

• • Home odds (2.20) > break-even (2.00) for a 50% win estimate
• • Market overprices the away player relative to available information

Pros

• + Clear positive EV on home at current widely-available price
• + Simple, conservative probability estimate (50%) supported by identical player data

Cons

• - Very limited and identical data for both players increases uncertainty
• - No H2H, tournament context, or injury information to refine the model

Details

We see both players with effectively identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form across clay and hard courts; there are no clear differentiators in the provided research (no injuries, no H2H advantage, no surface edge). The market prices the away player as the favorite at 1.64 (implied ~60.98%) and the home player at 2.20 (implied ~45.45%), creating an overround. Given the symmetry in available information, we assess the true win probability as roughly 50% for each player. At our estimated probability (50%), the home price of 2.20 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.5 * 2.20 - 1 = +0.10, or +10% ROI). The away price of 1.64 does not offer value versus our estimate. We therefore recommend backing the home player only because current market odds exceed our break-even threshold (min required decimal odds 2.000). Key caveats: small sample sizes, limited data points, and lack of H2H or contextual tournament info increase uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical overall records and recent results in the provided data (10-21).
• • Market favors the away player (1.64) despite no clear justification in the research.
• • Home price (2.20) is above our break-even threshold (2.00) given a 50% true win chance.