Tessa Johanna Brockmann vs Lilli Tagger

Highlights

• • Tagger's deep experience and consistent win history vs Brockmann's limited record
• • Current odds (1.426) imply ~70.2% but our model assigns ~75% — creating value

Pros

• + Positive EV at current widely-available price
• + Lower upset probability given opponent's poor form and limited match wins

Cons

• - No head-to-head data available in the provided research
• - Short sample for Brockmann introduces variance; single-match upsets still possible

Details

We see clear value on Lilli Tagger at the current away price. The market-implied probability for Tagger at 1.426 is ~70.2%, but her extensive experience (1066 career matches, a positive overall record) and superior match-win history vs. Brockmann's limited and poor record (10-22 in 32 matches) suggest Tagger has a materially higher win chance. Brockmann's recent form shows multiple losses and a short career sample, increasing variance and reducing her upset likelihood. We estimate Tagger's true win probability at 75%, which produces a positive expected value versus the offered 1.426. Using that probability, the EV = 0.75 * 1.426 - 1 = +0.0695 (≈6.95% ROI per unit), so the price is attractive relative to our model-implied chance.

Key factors

• • Large experience and positive career record advantage for Lilli Tagger
• • Tessa Brockmann's short career and poor recent results (10-22) raise upset risk low
• • Market-implied probability (70.2%) appears below our estimated true win chance (75%)