Highlights

• • Players' career records indicate near parity; slight edge to Ewald
• • Bookmaker pricing appears to overvalue Brockmann, creating value on Ewald

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current odds (EV ≈ 0.396)
• + Estimate based on objective win-rate comparison from provided data

Cons

• - Small sample sizes and limited match-context data increase uncertainty
• - No head-to-head, surface-specific form, or injury details in the provided research

Details

We assess value on Weronika Ewald (away). From the provided profiles both players have almost identical career records (Brockmann 10-22 in 32 matches, Ewald 10-21 in 31 matches), which implies a near-even matchup. Ewald holds a very slight edge in raw win rate (10/31 = 32.26% vs 10/32 = 31.25%), so we conservatively estimate the true win probability for Ewald at 51.5%. The market prices Brockmann at 1.417 (implied home win prob ~70.6%) and Ewald at 2.71 (implied away win prob ~36.9%) — a large discrepancy versus the near-parity indicated by the players' records. At our estimated true probability (0.515) the away price 2.71 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.515*2.71 - 1 ≈ 0.396). We therefore recommend the away side because the bookmaker's implied probability materially underestimates Ewald relative to our estimate, producing value at the current quote.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records suggest an approximately even matchup
• • Ewald has a marginally better raw win rate (10/31 vs 10/32)
• • Market strongly favors Brockmann (implied 70.6%) despite little evidence of such a large edge