Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability for Roger ~55.0% (fair odds ~1.818)
• • Current away price 1.76 produces a small negative EV (~-0.032)

Pros

• + Both players have demonstrated competence on hard courts in recent events
• + Roger's higher career win rate suggests he may be the marginal favorite

Cons

• - Small sample sizes and limited data increase uncertainty
• - Edge over the market is too small and negative at available prices

Details

We compared market prices (Home 2.00, Away 1.76) to a conservative true-probability estimate based on the available career win-rates and recent activity. Roger Pascual Ferra shows a slightly higher career win percentage (≈61.5% vs Theo Papamalamis ≈58.7%), but samples are small and both have recent results on hard courts at the M15 level, making form and matchup uncertainty high. We estimate Roger's true win probability at 55.0%, which implies fair odds of ~1.818. The current away price of 1.76 implies a probability of ~56.8% and is slightly shorter than our fair price, producing a small negative expected value (EV ≈ -0.032). Theo at 2.00 would require a true win probability of 50.0% to be fair; our view assigns him below that. Given the small margin and high variance at this level, neither side shows positive EV at the current market prices, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Both players have recent hard-court matches at M15 level (comparable surface form)
• • Roger has a slightly higher career win percentage but smaller match sample
• • Theo has more recent activity (August) which can indicate fitness/edge
• • No head-to-head data and low-level event increases variance
• • Market prices slightly favor Roger; current price is marginally worse than our fair value