Thiago Monteiro vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

Highlights

• • Daniel's overall record is materially stronger (45-24 vs 29-32).
• • Current market price 2.01 > our fair price 1.818, yielding positive EV (~0.106).

Pros

• + Clear record advantage suggesting higher baseline win probability.
• + Market odds currently offer a meaningful margin over our estimated fair price.

Cons

• - Daniel appears to have limited grass experience which introduces surface risk.
• - Small sample/no H2H available and some conflicting recent-match surface notes increase uncertainty.

Details

We estimate value on Daniel Merida Aguilar (away). Daniel's career record (45-24) is substantially stronger than Thiago Monteiro's (29-32), implying a higher baseline win probability. Although the match is on grass and Monteiro has recorded grass matches while Daniel's profile shows mainly clay and hard, Daniel's superior overall form and win rate lead us to project he is the better player overall; we conservatively discount Daniel's probability modestly for relative inexperience on grass. The market prices Monteiro at 1.806 (implied ~55.4%) and Daniel at 2.01 (implied ~49.8%). Our estimated true probability for Daniel is 55%, which converts to a fair decimal price of ~1.818. At the available price of 2.01 the expectation is positive (EV = 0.55 * 2.01 - 1 ≈ 0.106, ~10.6% ROI). Given the clear win-rate gap, limited grass-surface risk, and a market price that overvalues Monteiro relative to our projection, we find the away price offers value.

Key factors

• • Daniel's superior career win-loss record (45-24) vs Monteiro (29-32)
• • Surface experience: Monteiro has grass history; Daniel's profile lists clay/hard only (small downgrade)
• • Market odds imply Monteiro favoritism; current price for Daniel (2.01) is above our fair value (1.818)