Thomas Faurel vs Benjamin Thomas George
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We do not find value on Thomas Faurel at 1.145 given surface uncertainty and our estimated win probability (~72%); the fair decimal price would need to be ~1.389 or shorter to be profitable.
Highlights
- • Bookmaker-implied probability for Faurel: ~87.3%
- • Our estimated true probability for Faurel: 72% (no bet recommended)
Pros
- + Faurel has the stronger recent win-loss record
- + Home designation and slightly better form favor Faurel
Cons
- - Neither player has documented grass-court results — big uncertainty
- - Current price (1.145) implies a probability materially above our estimate, producing negative EV
Details
We estimate Thomas Faurel is the stronger player on paper (better recent record and marginally stronger form), but both players lack documented grass-court experience and their recent matches are on clay/hard only. The market price of 1.145 implies a win probability of ~87.3% for Faurel; we judge a more realistic win probability around 72% given surface uncertainty, comparable level of opponents in recent results, and limited direct evidence of dominance. At our estimate the bookmaker price is too short to offer value (required fair odds ~1.389 vs current 1.145), so we do not recommend taking the heavy favourite at current prices.
Key factors
- • Both players have no documented grass-court history; surface uncertainty increases downside risk
- • Faurel has a better overall recent record (25-22 vs 17-23) but not enough to justify an 87% implied market probability
- • Market implies a much higher probability than our estimate — current odds are too short for value