Highlights

• • Faurel implied probability 63.5% vs our 59% estimate
• • Neither player presents clear grass advantage; both coming from clay/hard results

Pros

• + Market clearly identifies a favorite, simplifying value comparison
• + Both players' similar form reduces chance of a hidden discrepancy we missed

Cons

• - Very limited grass-specific data increases uncertainty
• - Small differences in form or late withdrawals/injuries (not reported) could swing value

Details

We compared the market prices (Faurel 1.575 implied ~63.5%) to on-file form and surface fit. Both players have very similar seasonal records (Faurel 25-22, Palosi 25-23) and recent results are from clay/hard events; neither profile shows a grass background or distinct edge on grass. Given the lack of a clear grass advantage, small sample differences and comparable recent form, we estimate Thomas Faurel's true win probability at ~59%, which is meaningfully below the market-implied 63.5% for the favorite. At that estimate the favorite's EV at 1.575 is negative (EV = 0.59*1.575 - 1 ≈ -0.071), and the upset also lacks positive EV at 2.34. To convert this into a betting threshold: Faurel would need to be priced at decimal odds >= 1.695 (1 / 0.59) to be fair value to us. Because neither side offers positive expected value at current widely-available prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Both players have similar season records and recent form; no clear superiority
• • Match is on grass but both players' recent activity and surfaces played are clay/hard — limited grass evidence
• • Market strongly favors Faurel (implied ~63.5%); our assessment sees a smaller edge (~59%) so no value