Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Pereira: ~57.1%; our estimate: 60%
• • Positive EV at current odds (≈ +5% ROI per unit staked)

Pros

• + Clear experience and match-volume advantage for Pereira
• + Current price (1.75) is above our fair odds threshold (1.667)

Cons

• - Recent match lines in the research are sparse and somewhat inconsistent, creating uncertainty
• - No direct head-to-head data provided and limited granular form/injury detail

Details

We see value on the home moneyline (Tiago Pereira). The market price of 1.75 implies a win probability of ~57.1%, while Pereira's substantially larger sample size (94 matches, 55-39) and broader surface experience versus Andrew Paulson's limited record (15 matches, 5-9) suggest a higher true chance. Paulson is less experienced overall on the tour and shows a weaker win-loss profile; although both players have recent matches listed on clay, Pereira's consistency and match volume give him the edge. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 60.0% against the market-implied 57.1% produces a positive expected value: EV = 0.60*1.75 - 1 = 0.05 (5% ROI). Given the available odds, we recommend backing Pereira only because current prices exceed our required fair odds.

Key factors

• • Experience and sample size advantage for Pereira (94 matches vs 15)
• • Overall win-loss record favors Pereira (55-39 vs 5-9)
• • Surface competence and recent match activity slightly favors the more experienced player