Highlights

• • Market-implied probability (61.4%) is slightly below our estimate (62.0%)
• • Edge is very small (~0.01 EV per unit) and sensitive to surface uncertainty

Pros

• + Higher historical win rate and better recent outcomes in provided data
• + Current price just crosses our value threshold

Cons

• - No recorded grass-court history for either player in the provided profiles
• - Edge is tiny — vulnerable to small estimation errors or match-day factors

Details

We estimate Tianhui Zhang is the probability favorite based on a stronger overall win-loss profile (28-20 vs 19-27) and slightly better recent outcomes. Both players have virtually no recorded grass results in the provided profiles, which increases uncertainty, but the market price (home 1.629 decimal) implies a 61.4% win probability; our estimated true probability is 62.0%, just above that threshold. Calculation: market implied p = 1/1.629 = 0.614; our p = 0.62 gives EV = 0.62 * 1.629 - 1 = 0.00998 (~0.01) per unit staked. The margin is small, so we recommend the home side only because it offers positive expected value at the quoted price, but acknowledge material model risk from the lack of grass data and limited direct-form comparators.

Key factors

• • Tianhui Zhang has a superior overall win-loss record (28-20 vs 19-27)
• • Both players lack recorded grass-court experience in the provided profiles — adds uncertainty
• • Current market odds (1.629) imply 61.4% — our estimate of 62.0% yields a small positive edge