Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah / Lian Tran vs Emily Appleton / Isabelle Haverlag
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value bet at current prices — the favorite's price (1.331) understates uncertainty and offers negative EV versus our estimated probability; the underdog price lacks supporting evidence to justify a bet.
Highlights
- • Away price (1.331) implies ~75% win chance; we estimate ~62%—no value on the favorite
- • Insufficient data to confidently upgrade the home pair's implied ~31% chance into a clear value play
Pros
- + Market clearly favors the away duo, reflecting book pricing that could be tightened if more positive data appeared
- + We preserved bankroll by avoiding a marginal/uncertain edge given sparse data
Cons
- - Some value could exist on the home side if unknown factors (e.g., Tiantsoa's form on venue surface) materially favor them, but that information is not provided
- - Our estimate carries uncertainty because profiles and H2H/doubles-specific data are limited in the research
Details
We compared the market prices to our assessment of win probabilities based on the limited player data available. Emily Appleton and Isabelle Haverlag are listed with similar overall records and recent poor results (both show 10-21 career records and recent losses), and Lian Tran also shows a weak recent record. There is no profile provided for Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah in the research, increasing uncertainty rather than creating a clear advantage for the home pair. The book market heavily favors Appleton/Haverlag at decimal 1.331 (implied ~75.1%). We estimate the favorite's true chance is substantially lower (~62%), so the current favorite price is overpriced from our perspective and offers negative expected value at the quoted price. Conversely, while the underdog price (home) at 3.21 implies a ~31.1% chance, the available data do not provide enough justification to confidently assign a true win probability materially above that level. Given the uncertainty and lack of a clear edge in the data provided, we do not recommend a bet at current prices.
Key factors
- • Both Appleton and Haverlag show similar weak recent form and career records (10-21), reducing a strong favorite case
- • Lian Tran also shows poor recent results; absence of data on Tiantsoa increases uncertainty for the home pair
- • Market implies an outsized probability for the away pair (≈75%) that our assessment does not support