Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah vs Panna Udvardy

Highlights

• • Market implies ~71.9% for Udvardy (1/1.391) which conflicts with available form data
• • Home at 3.14 yields EV ≈ +0.884 per unit at our 60% estimate

Pros

• + Large disconnect between market-implied favorite probability and documented poor recent form
• + High EV at available prices if our conservative probability estimate is realistic

Cons

• - Very limited direct data on the home player creates uncertainty in the true probability estimate
• - If Udvardy’s market favoritism is based on reliable but unseen factors, the value may not materialize

Details

The market strongly favors Panna Udvardy at decimal 1.391 (implied ~71.9%), but the only available performance data shows Udvardy with a 10-21 record and consecutive recent losses, indicating poor form that is inconsistent with a >70% win expectation. We conservatively estimate the home player (Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah) has a 60.0% true chance to win given Udvardy’s visible weakness and recent results. At the quoted home price 3.14 this produces substantial positive EV (EV = 0.60*3.14 - 1 = 0.884). The market's implied probabilities (home ~31.8%, away ~71.9%) look skewed toward Udvardy relative to the available form data, producing value on the home underdog at current prices. We acknowledge limited data on the home player and therefore remain conservative in our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Panna Udvardy’s poor overall record (10-21) undercuts the market’s heavy favoritism
• • Recent consecutive losses indicate form deterioration for the market favorite
• • Market-implied probabilities (away ~71.9%) are materially higher than what the available form data supports