Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah vs Janice Tjen

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability (Janice) ~78.7% vs. observed career win rate ~32%
• • Home implied fair odds (based on our estimate) require only ~1.476 to be +EV; current 4.04 is much higher

Pros

• + Large numerical edge between market price and win-rate-derived probability
• + Simple two-player matchup lets us convert Janice's low win rate into a high implied home probability

Cons

• - We have only Janice's profile; no opponent-specific data or additional context to validate the huge market discrepancy
• - Market may be pricing information not present in our sources (injury status, matchup specifics, recent wins), so the perceived value could be illusory

Details

The market makes Janice Tjen a heavy favorite at 1.272 (implied ~78.7%). The only available empirical data (Janice's career record: 10–21 across 31 matches) implies a true win probability for her of ~32.3%. In a two-player match that implies the home player, Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah, should have a win probability of ~67.7%. At the current home moneyline of 4.04 this produces a very large positive expected value. We have no opponent-specific data to contradict this, but given the clear mismatch between Janice's documented win rate and the market-implied probability, backing the home player offers value. We flag substantial uncertainty because our data set contains only Janice's profile and limited recent-form notes; market information not in our sources could justify the short price on Janice, so risk remains high.

Key factors

• • Janice Tjen career win rate 10/31 (~32.3%) indicating weak baseline likelihood
• • Market heavily favors Janice at 1.272 (implied ~78.7%), creating a large disagreement with available data
• • No data provided for the home player, increasing model uncertainty despite clear value signal