Tidebound vs Nigma Galaxy
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With limited information we conservatively estimate Nigma Galaxy's win chance at 35%; at 3.00 that price yields ~+5% expected value, so the away side represents a value bet.
Highlights
- • Away (Nigma Galaxy) EV ≈ +5% at current odds 3.00
- • Required odds to break even on our estimate: 2.857; market offers 3.00
Pros
- + Clear positive EV at widely available odds
- + Conservative probability estimate reduces overconfidence risk
Cons
- - High uncertainty due to no available matchup, form, or injury data
- - Esports (Dota 2) results have high variance—single-match outcomes can be swingy
Details
We have no external match data, so we proceed conservatively. The market prices show Tidebound at 1.385 (implied ~72.2%) and Nigma Galaxy at 3.00 (implied ~33.3%); normalizing those gives roughly 68.4% for Tidebound and 31.6% for Nigma Galaxy. Given the lack of injury/form/H2H data and the tendency for bookmakers to slightly overprice home advantage, we conservatively down-weight the market edge toward Tidebound and estimate Tidebound's true win probability at 65% and Nigma Galaxy at 35%. At those estimates the away line (3.00) offers positive expected value: EV = 0.35 * 3.00 - 1 = +0.05 (5% ROI per 1 unit stake). The home line (1.385) is below our required fair odds (1.538) and therefore has negative EV. Because the away side shows measurable value at the available price, we recommend Nigma Galaxy.
Key factors
- • Market-implied odds favor Tidebound heavily after normalization
- • Conservative adjustment reduces home probability to account for possible overpricing of home advantage
- • No injury/form/H2H data increases uncertainty—favoring a conservative probabilistic edge for the underdog