Highlights

• • Gilles is the clear qualitative favorite (estimated win prob 97.5%)
• • Current odds (1.01) leave a small negative expected value — avoid betting

Pros

• + Strong empirical record for Gilles supports heavy favoritism
• + No reported injuries or form red flags in available data

Cons

• - Market has compressed odds to near-certain levels, removing profitable margin
• - Tim Loosen's chance is small and available outsider price (17.0) is well below breakeven

Details

We estimate Gilles Arnaud Bailly is the clear favorite based on a strong 47-21 record across surfaces and recent Challenger-level activity; however the market price of 1.01 (implied ~99.01%) overstates the edge compared with our conservative true win probability estimate of 97.5%. Using p=0.975, the expected value of taking Gilles at 1.01 is EV = 0.975*1.01 - 1 = -0.01525 (about -1.5% ROI), so there is no positive value on the heavy favorite. Conversely, the longshot Tim Loosen would require decimal odds around 40.0 to break even given our estimate of his win probability (~2.5%), making the available 17.0 far below breakeven. Therefore neither side offers value at current quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Gilles Arnaud Bailly strong season: 47-21 record (68 matches) suggests clear quality edge
• • Versatility on clay and hard surfaces and recent Challenger match activity
• • Market price for Gilles (1.01) implies ~99.01% — higher than our conservative 97.5% estimate
• • Outsider Tim Loosen is an unknown longshot; would need odds near 40.0 to be value