Highlights

• • Market implies 26.2% for the away side; we estimate ~30%.
• • Home pairing's recent results (both ~10-22/10-21) reduce confidence in the 1.25 favorite price.

Pros

• + Positive EV at current widely-available price (3.82).
• + Away duo benefits from Barnett's extensive experience and surface adaptability.

Cons

• - Limited direct pairing data and mutual recent losses for all four players increase variance.
• - If Babos/Stefani regain form quickly, the market price could be justified and our edge disappear.

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Barnett/Lechemia (1/3.82 = 26.2%) to our assessment using only the provided player data. The market prices Babos/Stefani as a heavy favorite (1.25 => 80% implied), but both Babos and Stefani show poor recent doubles results in the supplied profiles (each ~10-22 and 10-21 records), so the baseline expectation that the home pair is ~80% likely to win appears overstated given the documented form. Barnett brings a much larger career sample and demonstrated surface versatility, and while Lechemia's recent numbers are modest, the pairing should not be treated as a negligible longshot. Using the conservative view that the away side has roughly a 30% true chance to win (higher than the market-implied 26.2%) we find value at the current 3.82 price: EV = 0.30 * 3.82 - 1 = +0.146 (14.6% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We therefore recommend backing the away pair only because the quoted decimal price (3.82) exceeds the min-required odds given our probability estimate (3.333). Key uncertainties are limited data on this specific pairing and recent losing form across the board, so our probability is conservative.

Key factors

• • Home pair recent documented form is weak (Babos ~10-22; Stefani ~10-21).
• • Away pair includes Barnett with extensive career wins and multi-surface experience.
• • Market-implied probability for the away side (26.2%) is slightly below our conservative 30% estimate, creating value at 3.82.