Timea Babos / Luisa Stefani vs Anna Rogers / Janice Tjen
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market heavily favors the home pair but provided form data does not support an ~86% chance; no value at 1.161. A bet would require odds roughly >= 1.667 to be positive-edge given our estimate.
Highlights
- • Implied market probability (86.1%) substantially higher than our estimated 60%
- • Fair decimal price by our estimate: ~1.667; current 1.161 is poor value
Pros
- + Home price is short — low variance outcome if accurate
- + Players have experience on clay/hard per profiles (no clear negative indicator)
Cons
- - Provided recent records do not justify the heavy market favoritism
- - No H2H, recent form spikes, or injury absences documented to explain the short price
Details
We find no value on the heavy favorite (Home) at current market pricing. The listed price of 1.161 implies an 86.1% win probability, but the available player profiles show similarly modest recent win-loss records (roughly 10-22 / 10-21) for the named players and no clear evidence that the home pairing should be an 86% favorite. With limited positive indicators (no injury news, no dominant recent results, and no H2H data), we estimate a much lower true win probability for the home team (~60%). At that true probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.667; the offered 1.161 produces a negative expected value, so we do not recommend taking the market price.
Key factors
- • Market price (1.161) implies 86.1% probability — likely overstated given available form data
- • Available player profiles show similar modest recent win-loss records (~10-22), providing no clear dominance signal
- • No H2H, injury, or surface advantage information in the provided research to justify the heavy favorite price