Timea Babos / Luisa Stefani vs Solana Sierra / Renata Zarazua
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given the lack of a clear performance gap in the supplied profiles, the market overprices the home team; we find value on the away pairing at 4.15 with an estimated true win probability of 35%.
Highlights
- • Home implied prob 81.97% vs our estimated home prob ~65%
- • Away odds 4.15 imply 24.1% but we estimate 35%, producing +0.4525 EV
Pros
- + Meaningful positive EV at widely available current odds (4.15)
- + Research shows no decisive advantage for the favourite, supporting contrarian pick
Cons
- - Player profiles provided lack doubles-specific form and head-to-head data
- - Small-sample uncertainty in recent results increases outcome variance
Details
Market prices: Home 1.22 implies a 81.97% win probability, Away 4.15 implies 24.10%. The supplied player profiles show very similar recent records, surfaces played (clay/hard) and no clear dominance for the home pairing; there is no evidence in the provided data that Timea Babos/Luisa Stefani deserve an ~82% market probability. We conservatively estimate the away pair (Solana Sierra/Renata Zarazua) have a true win probability of 35% (0.35). At the quoted away odds of 4.15 this yields EV = 0.35 * 4.15 - 1 = +0.4525 (45.3% ROI on a 1-unit stake), indicating positive value. By contrast, backing the favourite at 1.22 with our 65% estimate for the home side (complement of 35%) yields EV = 0.65 * 1.22 - 1 = -0.207 (negative), so the favourite is overpriced. Given nearly identical recent records and surfaces in the research, the market overprices the home team and underprices the away team, creating value on the away side at current odds.
Key factors
- • Market heavily favours the home side (1.22 -> 81.97%) while research shows no clear superiority
- • All four players show similar recent records and experience on clay/hard in provided data
- • Current away odds (4.15 -> 24.1%) appear undervalued relative to our 35% true-win estimate