Timeo Trufelli vs Harry Wendelken

Highlights

• • Market implied probability: ~92.6% (1.081)
• • Our estimated fair price: ~1.429 (70% win probability)

Pros

• + Wendelken has a positive overall record and match volume indicating experience
• + Market consensus strongly favors Wendelken, so liquidity/price stability is high

Cons

• - Available research does not support the extreme market pricing (no clear evidence of injury/forfeit by opponent)
• - Betting on the heavy favorite at 1.081 offers negative expected value unless true win rate >92.6%

Details

We compare the market-implied probability (away 1.081 => ~92.6%) to our assessed true win probability for Harry Wendelken. Wendelken's profile shows a solid overall record (35-24) and activity across surfaces, but nothing in the available research supports a >92% true win chance versus Timeo Trufelli. We estimate Wendelken's true win probability around 70% based on overall form and lack of evidence of a decisive mismatch or opponent injury. At a 70% win probability the fair decimal price is ~1.429; the current price of 1.081 is far too low to offer positive expected value (EV = 0.70*1.081 - 1 = -0.243). Therefore there is no value at the quoted markets and we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~92.6% for Wendelken (1/1.081) which is far above our assessment
• • Wendelken career record (35-24) indicates solid form but not near a near-certain win
• • No injuries, head-to-head, or surface advantage evidence in provided research to justify market price