Timofei Derepasko vs Toby Samuel

Highlights

• • Current odds 4.03 vs our computed fair odds ~3.571
• • Positive expected value of ~12.8% per unit staked using our probability

Pros

• + Price materially above our min-required odds (3.571) for value
• + Both players' limited samples increase variance, favoring the underdog price inefficiency

Cons

• - Toby Samuel is the stronger market favorite with a larger match sample
• - Small sample sizes for both players introduce higher uncertainty in our probability estimate

Details

We see the market pricing Toby Samuel as a heavy favorite (1.208 => implied ~82.8%) and Timofei Derepasko as a sizable underdog (4.03 => implied ~24.8%). The available profiles show both players have limited pro history in 2025 with comparable surfaces (hard and clay) exposure and mixed recent results, but Toby's larger sample (26 matches) and slight edge in wins does not justify a near-83% market probability against a younger player with fewer matches. We estimate Derepasko's true chance at 28.0% based on: (1) his competence on the listed surfaces in the research, (2) the volatility and small-sample uncertainty in both players' records which narrows the gap versus the market-implied gap, and (3) the market overround (~7.6%) that inflates favorite prices. At a true probability of 0.28 the break-even decimal odds are 3.571; the current price of 4.03 offers positive expected value. Calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.28 * 4.03 - 1 = 0.128 (12.8% ROI on a 1-unit stake). Given no injury flags and similar surface experience, the available price on Derepasko represents value versus the favorite price for Samuel (1.208).

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Derepasko (24.8%) is below our estimate (28.0%)
• • Both players show limited but comparable 2025 activity and surface exposure (hard/clay), increasing uncertainty
• • Market overround (~7.6%) inflates favorite pricing and can create underdog value
• • No injury or withdrawal indicators in the provided research