Timothee Andriveau vs Dimitris Sakellaridis

Highlights

• • Implied probability at 1.28 = 78.1%; our estimated probability = 65.0%
• • Negative EV at current price: -0.168 per unit staked based on our model

Pros

• + Sakellaridis is the clearly favored player in market pricing
• + Available profile shows he is an active player with match experience

Cons

• - Career record and recent form are inconsistent — performance risk
• - Lack of opponent and surface-specific data increases model uncertainty

Details

We compared the current moneyline (Away Dimitris Sakellaridis at 1.28, implied 78.1%) to our independent win-probability estimate. The available profile for Sakellaridis shows an overall marginal record (24-27) with mixed recent results and inconsistent stats, and there is no usable information on the opponent (Timothee Andriveau) or clear surface/ matchup context in the research provided. Given the mediocre career record and recent inconsistency, we estimate Sakellaridis’ true win probability at about 65.0%, which implies fair decimal odds of roughly 1.538. At the quoted 1.28 the bet has negative expected value (EV = 0.65 * 1.28 - 1 = -0.168), so we do not recommend taking the favorite at current prices. We therefore recommend no bet unless odds move to at least our min_required_decimal_odds or better. Odds used for EV calculation: 1.28 (current away price).

Key factors

• • Sakellaridis record is marginal (24-27) with mixed recent form
• • Current price implies ~78% win chance which exceeds our estimated ~65% true probability
• • No reliable information on the opponent or surface/context in the provided research increases uncertainty