Highlights

• • Home implied probability = 66.7%; our estimate = 66.0%
• • Negative EV at current home odds (EV ≈ -0.01 per unit)

Pros

• + Market favours the home player, consistent with the limited form evidence on the away player
• + Hard-court experience is present for the away player, so no clear surface disadvantage for either side

Cons

• - Extremely limited and noisy data set for the away player makes probability estimates unstable
• - No data on the home player in the provided Research, increasing model uncertainty and reducing confidence in finding value

Details

We compared the market prices (Home 1.50, Away 2.43) to our read of the limited available data. Espen Lagarde has a very small sample (3 recorded matches, 1-2) but has played on hard courts recently; there is no data for Timothee Andriveau in the Research provided, leaving a high uncertainty margin. The market implies the home player has ~66.7% win probability; after adjusting for Lagarde's modest record and the absence of any contradictory information on Andriveau, we estimate the home player's true probability at ~66.0%, slightly below the market-implied price, which produces a small negative edge at the quoted home odds. Because expected_value is not positive at current widely-available prices, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Very limited sample size for Espen Lagarde (3 matches, 1-2) increases uncertainty
• • Available results indicate play on hard courts, so surface suitability is neutral rather than advantageous
• • No information provided on Timothee Andriveau (home), so market is carrying unknowns which reduces exploitable edges