Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini vs George Lazarov
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the home underdog at 3.85 because George's short, losing recent record and clay losses make an 81% market implied probability implausible; a 33% true chance for the home player yields ~27% EV.
Highlights
- • Market heavily favors George (1.23) but his record is 4-7
- • Home required odds to be fair are ~3.03; current price 3.85 exceeds that
Pros
- + Clear positive EV at current market price (≈27% ROI by our estimate)
- + Research shows opponent in poor recent clay form, supporting home upset potential
Cons
- - Very limited data on the home player in the provided research increases uncertainty
- - Small career sample for George makes probability estimates noisy — risk of model error
Details
We identify value on the home player (Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini) because the market price heavily favors George Lazarov (away) at 1.23, which implies ~81% win probability. The research, however, shows George has a short career sample (11 matches) with a 4-7 record and recent losses on clay in August 2025, which suggests his true probability of winning this match is substantially lower than the market implies. Conservatively estimating the home win probability at 33%, the required fair odds are 1 / 0.33 = 3.03. The current market price for the home player is 3.85, which produces positive expected value: EV = 0.33 * 3.85 - 1 = 0.271 (27.1% ROI per 1 unit). Given George's losing recent form on clay and limited career results, the market appears to overprice him as a near-certain favorite; the home price of 3.85 offers value relative to our conservative probability estimate.
Key factors
- • George Lazarov career record 4-7 (small sample) suggests limited dominance
- • Recent losses on clay in August 2025 indicate weak current form on the surface
- • Market odds (away 1.23) imply ~81% chance for George — likely overstated given his record