Highlights

• • Market implies Yanis win ~71.1% vs our estimate 68.0% (negative EV).
• • Toby would need >37.1% win probability to be +EV at 2.69; we estimate he is below that threshold.

Pros

• + Yanis has the stronger overall record and more consistent recent form.
• + Both players have hard-court experience so the matchup is relatively comparable.

Cons

• - Market favorite price (1.405) requires >71% true win chance to be profitable; we estimate lower.
• - ITF-level matches carry high variance and small-sample records limit confidence in any edge.

Details

We estimate Yanis Ghazouani Durand as the pre-match favorite but below the market-implied probability. Yanis' 17-17 record, broader surface exposure, and steadier recent results give him an estimated win probability of 68.0%. The market price of 1.405 implies ~71.1% (1/1.405), which is higher than our view, producing negative expected value. The underdog Toby Martin (9-21) is out of form and, even though the market gives him 2.69 (implied 37.2%), our rough estimate for him (~32%) is still insufficient to generate positive EV at that price. Given small sample sizes on the ITF level and limited additional info, we do not find value on either side at current odds.

Key factors

• • Player records: Yanis 17-17 vs Toby 9-21 (clear edge in wins/experience)
• • Recent form: Toby's recent matches show more losses; Yanis has steadier recent results
• • Surface/venue: both have ITF hard-court experience, so no strong surface swing expected
• • Market pricing: favorite odds (1.405) imply ~71.1% - we view this as overstated
• • Small-sample variance on ITF events increases outcome unpredictability