Toby Samuel vs Peter Makk

Highlights

• • Underdog price (3.07) offers value if Peter's true chance is ≥32.6%
• • Similar career records make a 75% market consensus on Toby unlikely

Pros

• + Current decimal 3.07 > min required 2.778 for our estimated probability, giving positive EV
• + Peter's more recent match activity may indicate better immediate form/freshness

Cons

• - Small sample sizes and sparse match detail increase uncertainty around the true probability estimate
• - No head-to-head, detailed injury, or precise surface confirmation in the provided data

Details

The market prices Toby Samuel as a heavy favorite at 1.332 (implied win probability ~75.2%), which would require an unrealistically high true win probability given the available data (career records and recent results). Both players have similar career winning percentages on comparable surfaces (Toby 14-12, Peter 8-7) and match-level recent form is mixed; notably Peter has more recent match activity listed (01-Sep-2025) versus Toby's last listed results on 11-Aug-2025, which suggests Peter may be relatively fresher. The away price of 3.07 implies a win probability of ~32.6%. We estimate Peter's true chance at ~36%, which is meaningfully above the market-implied 32.6% after accounting for book vigorish, producing positive expected value. By contrast, the home price would require Toby to be ~75% likely to win to offer value, which is inconsistent with the comparable career records and the lack of dominant indicators in the research.

Key factors

• • Current market implies Peter ~32.6% chance (1/3.07); our model estimates ~36%
• • Career records and surface experience are similar (Toby 14-12 vs Peter 8-7), reducing confidence in a 75% favorite
• • Recency: Peter has later listed match activity (01-Sep) vs Toby (11-Aug), supporting a modest edge for the underdog