Toby Martin vs Nikolai Marin
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The away side (Nikolai Marin) shows clear value at 15.0 given Toby Martin's poor record and form; we estimate Nikolai ~65% to win, yielding a very large positive EV at the current price.
Highlights
- • Toby's documented win rate (~30%) conflicts sharply with the market-implied 98% for this match
- • At 15.0 decimal, even modest win-probability estimates for Nikolai produce strong positive EV
Pros
- + Huge market mispricing creates substantial theoretical ROI on the away price
- + Toby's recent match log points to vulnerability (consecutive losses on the same surface)
Cons
- - We lack any direct data on Nikolai Marin in the provided research (uncertainty about his true level)
- - Small-sample career data for Toby and missing context (surface at Nevers, conditions, injuries) increase variance
Details
The market heavily overprices Toby Martin (1.02 decimal, implied ~98%) despite his weak career record (9-21, ~30% career win rate) and recent poor form (multiple recent losses on hard). We have no positive evidence that Nikolai Marin is extremely weak; using Toby's documented performance as the baseline, it is far more plausible that Nikolai has a substantially higher chance than the market-implied 6.7%. We conservatively estimate Nikolai's win probability at 65%; at the quoted 15.0 decimal this produces large positive expected value. Even with conservative adjustments for uncertainty, the away price is deeply mispriced and represents clear value.
Key factors
- • Toby Martin career record 9-21 (~30% win rate) indicates weak baseline level
- • Recent form: consecutive losses on hard courts leading into this match
- • Market price (Toby 1.02) implies an implausibly high win probability (~98%) given documented form